Who Will Be Elected US President In 2024?

With just over half a year to go until the 2024 US presidential elections, there is increasing talk about who will govern the country for the next four years. Although there are no official candidates yet, it is an open secret that Biden and Trump will face each other.

Both leading candidates have been President once before. Mr Trump was President from 2016-20, while Mr Biden won the last election and defeated Mr Trump in 2020. Here, we briefly look at the main arguments for why Mr Biden should stay on as President for a second term.

Joe Biden becomes President @ 2.80

First, look back to 2016, when Mr Trump won the election. Both major candidates came to replace Obama, and the US population had to choose between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Both are very different candidates, and it is also worth noting that, until now, the US has always elected a male President.

Then Mr Trump unexpectedly became President only because of the US state voting system. Regarding the number of people, Mrs Clinton won more votes – 65 853 514 to 62 984 828.

In 2020, Mr Biden confidently defeated the then-President, winning both states and the population—81,283,501 to 74,223,975. The 81 million votes were the highest in US history, showing confidence in Mr Biden or a reluctance to see Mr Trump that no presidential candidate has received.

This year will be much more difficult for Mr Trump, as he will have to compete against an incumbent who has the full attention of the media and can indirectly start his presidential campaign ahead of schedule. Recently, it has been common for the US President to be re-elected for a second term.

Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama were all re-elected for a second time, and it was Mr Trump who broke the streak by no longer being trusted.

We can also recall all Mr Trump’s scandals with law enforcement and his other negatives in the run-up to the forthcoming elections.

Mr Biden also has his shortcomings, but history shows that presidents are frequently re-elected, with 81 million votes in the last election. The US popular vote is also a good indicator for the forthcoming elections. A bet with odds of 2.80 certainly has value.

Key Considerations

Here is a snapshot of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, focusing on candidates’ odds, leading figures like Biden and Trump, and betting trends in the U.S. and abroad.

• The 2024 US presidential election odds have changed over time. Kamala Harris initially led but has fallen behind, while Joe Biden and Donald Trump have improved their positions.

• Despite a challenging first term and declining approval ratings, Joe Biden’s odds for reelection have risen because of his status as the Democratic nominee.

• Trump remains the favorite among Republicans despite legal challenges. His strong fundraising, party support, and decision to skip primary debates show his strong position.

• Gavin Newsom’s improved odds may be linked to a potential 2028 run, Robert Kennedy Jr. could run independently, Ron DeSantis is struggling within the GOP, and Nikki Haley’s odds have increased. Vivek Ramaswamy faces challenges due to his lack of political experience.

• Harris’s chances of winning have decreased, with lower approval ratings than Biden and others.

• U.S. citizens cannot enjoy betting on presidential elections, but international bettors, including Canadians, can. Independent figures like Mark Cuban and Joe Rogan are also considered potential long-shot candidates.

Betting on Elections: The Republicans

Here’s a breakdown of the current US Election betting odds for various Republican candidates in the 2024 presidential elections. 

Donald Trump

Despite legal challenges, Trump leads in presidential odds and is the favored Republican nominee. His legal issues include a civil fraud trial and accusations related to classified information and the 2020 election. 

These have bolstered his claims of being targeted, aiding his fundraising efforts. He enjoys significant support within the Republican base and has opted to skip primary debates, focusing on challenging Biden.

Ron DeSantis

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ political betting odds varied in 2022, reaching a high point but dropping. Most Republican voters still prefer Trump over him, according to recent polls. 

Due to increased scrutiny, DeSantis has had to change his campaign approach and let go of staff. His support mainly comes from Trump’s loyal base. Other Republican candidates are starting to take away some of his support. 

To improve his chances, DeSantis needs to show he can handle Florida’s issues well, proving he’s fit for more prominent leadership roles.

Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley’s US President betting odds have first improved notably, moving from US: +5,000 (UK:50/1, EU: 51) to US: +900 (UK: 9/1, EU: 10) due to solid debate showings and leading early polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina, ahead of DeSantis.

Her background as a former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador adds significant experience to her campaign. Despite trailing Trump in broader polling, recent criticism from him suggests he views her as a strong competitor.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy, a new candidate, briefly rose to seventh place at US: +1,600 (UK: 16/1, EU: 17) after the first Republican debates but has since dropped to US: +4,200 (UK: 42/1, EU: 43).

As a 38-year-old billionaire, he faces the challenge of competing with experienced Republicans. Winning over MAGA supporters is also tricky due to his ties to the pharmaceutical industry and their perception of him as part of the intellectual elite.

All Candidates

Below is the list of candidates with their respective US Presidential Election odds and the implied probabilities:

Candidate	Odds	Implied Probability
Donald Trump	US: -370 (UK: 0.27/1, EU: 1.27)	78.7%
Nikki Haley	US:+640 (UK: 6.4/1, EU: 7.4)	13.5%
Ron DeSantis	US: +2,300 (UK: 23/1, EU: 24)	4.2%
Vivek Ramaswamy	US: +4,200 (UK: 42/1, EU: 43)	2.3%
Tom Cotton	US: +10,000 (UK: 100/1, EU: 101)	1%
Tucker Carlson	US: +10,000 (UK: 100/1, EU: 101)	1%
Chris Christie	US: +15,000 (UK: 150/1, EU: 151)	0.7%
Tim Scott	US: +20,000 (UK: 200/1, EU: 201)	0.5%

If you are interested in betting on US Presidential Elections, other non-sports betting categories like Betting on the Oscars might interest you.

Bet on The Election: The Democrats

Here’s an overview of how Biden and other top Democratic hopefuls stand regarding betting odds and their implied probabilities.

Joe Biden

Biden’s betting odds have shifted, influenced by economic concerns and congressional debates. While his approval rating has dropped, his re-election chances on the Smarkets exchange have improved, mainly due to confidence in his Democratic nomination rather than increased popularity. 

Despite Hunter Biden’s legal issues, his position in the Democratic party is stable, with a high probability of being the nominee. Among potential Democratic competitors, two have opted out, and another might run independently. 

The 2024 election outlook is still being determined, with both major parties having equal odds.

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom, Governor of California, has seen a significant rise in his betting odds. Despite this, he stated he won’t challenge Biden and instead focuses on a potential 2028 campaign. 

Following the Democrats’ strong midterm performance, his chances have diminished, with only an 8.3% probability of winning, according to Smarkets. 

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris’ betting odds have dropped to US: +1,400 (UK: 14/1, EU: 15) (6.7%) from initially being a front-runner. On the Smarkets exchange, her chances of securing the party nomination are low at 6.7%, ranking behind Biden, Gavin Newsom, and Michelle Obama. 

As vice president, Harris has encountered difficulties, especially in addressing issues like border migration and national voting reform. 

However, according to FiveThirtyEight, her approval rating has improved, rising to 40.2% from a previous low of 29% in November 2021.

All Candidates

Below is the list of candidates with their respective odds and the implied probabilities:

Candidate	Odds	Implied Probability
Joe Biden	US: -400 (UK: 0.25/1, EU: 1.25)	80.0%
Gavin Newsom	US: +750 (UK: 7.5/1, EU: 8.5)	11.8%
Michelle Obama	US: +1,400 (UK: 14/1, EU: 15)	6.7%
Kamala Harris	US: +1,400 (UK: 14/1, EU: 15)	6.7%
Elizabeth Warren	US: +4,000 (UK: 40/1, EU: 41)	2.4%
Hillary Clinton	US: +4,000 (UK: 40/1, EU: 41)	2.4%
Gretchen Whitmer	US: +5,000 (UK: 50/1, EU: 51)	2.0%
Bernie Sanders	US: +8,000 (UK: 80/1, EU: 81)	1.2%
Andrew Cuomo	US: +10,000 (UK: 100/1, EU: 101)	1%

Independent Candidates

As we look toward the 2024 presidential elections, the odds for non-political figures making a run for the White House are interesting. 

Here’s a breakdown of their odds of betting on elections and the implied probabilities of them winning:

Candidate	Odds	Implied Probability
Robert F.Kennedy Jr	US: +2,000 (UK: 20/1, EU: 21)	4.8%
Mark Cuban	US: +15,000 (UK: 150/1, EU: 151)	0.7%
Kanye West	US: +25,000 (UK: 250/1, EU: 251)	0.4%

Tendency of U.S. Presidential Elections

The current president, Joe Biden, is a strong contender with odds of US: +240 (UK: 2.4/1, EU: 3.4) despite challenges during his first term. 

Barring unforeseen health issues, Biden is highly likely to be the Democratic nominee, with the party positioned either as a slight favorite or close competitor, around US: -250 (UK: 0.4/1, EU: 1.4), for The White House. 

Despite leading in polls among Republicans, Donald Trump odds are considered too short given the potential legal issues he may face during the campaign.

It’s advisable to refrain from betting on Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom, as neither has shown interest in challenging Biden.

On the Republican side, Ron DeSantis presents a good betting value at US: +2,300 (UK: 23/1, EU: 24). Initially overestimated, his odds now seem undervalued following initial campaign difficulties. 

DeSantis remains a top GOP candidate aside from Trump and Nikki Haley and is well-positioned to challenge them, especially if Trump’s legal complications intensify.

Since 1900, only 38% of U.S. presidents have been re-elected for consecutive terms. The average age at which presidents have been inaugurated is 55 years. 

In the history of U.S. presidential elections, there have been five instances where a candidate won the popular vote but lost the election. James Buchanan holds the distinction of being the only bachelor ever elected as president.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the 2024 U.S. presidential election presents a dynamic landscape with shifting odds among candidates. Joe Biden and Donald Trump lead their respective parties despite facing individual challenges. 

Other prominent figures like Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Ron DeSantis show varying levels of support. 

Although restricted in the U.S., betting trends reveal global interest in the election, including speculation on non-traditional candidates. The election outlook remains fluid, reflecting the unpredictable nature of U.S. politics.